Phase 3
Formal negotiations
Phase description
The negotiations between the contending parties begin. This process is likely mediated by a third party, such as the head of a foreign government, an international organization, or an eminent poltical person. The negotiations are likely to start in an exclusive and possibly informal manner, with limited options for participation of other groups. Often, inclusion will increase incrementally. The negotiations will lead to a deal between the representatives of the main political parties. This may include a power-sharing arrangement, or the creation of additional executive positions, a commitment to longer-term political reforms and reconciliation processes, or the repetition of the election in full or in part. In addition, the negotiations may lead to political agreements that define plans for long-term political reform processes, as well as short-term measures aimed at addressing the causes of violence. However, there is also a no-deal scenario, where the party in power will seek to silence protests through the continued use of force and delegitimize the political opposition’s claims through a public information campaign.
Explore the following 2 use case(s) of digital technology:
Use Case 1
Digital civilian monitoring of security incidents
A digital reporting system that allows trained voluntary civilian monitors and the general public to input any incidents on the ground. The collected data would provide up-to-date information on the security situation across the country. Individuals would be able to input through SMS, online, or through a mobile application. A public version would display general information, but would not be traceable to individual reporters. All reports would be triangulated and verified by a team of validators before being published. Members of the public who report an incident could opt to be contacted by trained civilian monitors as part of the verification process. The system should be clearly linked to a response mechanism that can deal with reported incidents.
The tool can be used in phases 2, 3 and 4.
Important context factors
The system will be most successful if used to complement existing sources. The effectiveness of the system depends on the responsibility and reliability of the civilian monitors. In conflict-affected areas, there may be limited availability of public digital infrastructure.
Risks and possible unintended consequences
- Civilian monitors may face security threats, especially if their location or identity is disclosed through surveillance
- Malicious actors may generate false reports based on fabricated information
- Information of security incidents may destabilize the situation and result in more violence
Strategic purpose of digital inclusion
Functions of digital Technology
Outputs of digital Technology
Technologies used
Apps, SMS systems, online dashboard
Use Case 2
Countering misinformation about the negotiations
This reporting and analysis system tracks the spread of misinformation on social media and offline. The system would combine automatic monitoring of specific keywords and accounts on social media with reports from critical informants on rumors that they are picking up. Informants could be civil society actors trusted by the mediation team. Such rumors could include false information about security incidents, such as ceasefire violations, about the negotiation process, as well as any other information that mediators consider might derail peace talks. Once a rumour relevant to the negotiations is identified, the system would analyse its factual validity, source, spread and impact on public opinion. This analysis would be used by mediation support actors to counter the rumor with targeted messaging.
Important context factors
The availability of suitable informants is critical to the effectiveness of the system. The system requires a reliable and fast communication infrastructure that allows for swift analysis and response. The reach of the audience for counter messages depends on their digital literacy, language diversity, and connectedness to communication infrastructures.
Risks and possible unintended consequences
- By addressing a rumour in order to debunk it, more attention may be drawn to it than if it had gone unmentioned
- Counter messages may not work if not appropriately crafted based on the context and the information ecosystem environment
Strategic purpose of digital inclusion
Functions of digital Technology
Outputs of digital Technology
Technologies used
Apps, online forms, SMS systems, social media analysis tools
Proceed to another phase
Phase 3