Scenario 1/4
This illustrative scenario describes options for digital inclusion during the negotiations of a Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) to terminate a large-scale armed conflict. Following a decade-long, full-fledged civil war that has fragmented the country along ethnic and regional lines, two major conflict parties enter a process of negotiations. The conflict involved large parts of the country and affected almost the entire population. The conflict is ripe for mediation, for instance, due to a change in the regional context that has led to a loss of military and political support for the main conflict parties, triggering negotiations. Following several rounds of informal consultations brokered by a third party, the parties reach a permanent ceasefire deal. Formal negotiations follow, leading to the signing of various protocols, such as on security arrangements, governance, and wealth sharing. Eventually, these individual protocols are merged into a Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA). The negotiations are followed by an implementation process.
Phase 1
A negotiated settlement between the conflict parties becomes more likely, as the dynamics shift from a purely military confrontation towards efforts to find a negotiated solution to the conflict. A first informal exchange between the conflict parties takes place. This may be facilitated by a third party, for instance, a regional organization, foreign government or non-governmental organization. These third parties may also offer to mediate between the parties or conduct trust-building measures that involve the conflict-affected population. National civil society may also campaign for an end to violence.
Phase 2
Several rounds of informal negotiations between representatives of the conflict parties will take place. These are likely to be initiated or facilitated by a third party. They may take place through shuttle diplomacy without face-to-face meetings between the conflict parties, or meetings between representatives outside the country. This phase usually sees concessions from both sides to increase trust and de-escalate the conflict, including the withdrawal or repositioning of troops, the release of political prisoners, or the granting of amnesty. The parties may also reach a ceasefire agreement or implement a unilateral cessation of hostilities, which constitute the first formal milestones in the peace process. Follow-up mechanisms may also be established, such as for cease-fire monitoring.
Phase 3
The parties agree on an official peace process, which involves formal rounds of negotiations as well as technical meetings. The negotiations are likely to be held abroad and can span from a few weeks to several years. Especially in larger conflicts with a strong international dimension, negotiations may also take place across several negotiation tables and may be facilitated by various mediation initiatives. The negotiations may evolve over the course of several agreements. There may be a framework agreement reached at the beginning of this phase. This may be followed by more detailed technical agreements on specific issues, such as security, political, and economic arrangements. At the end of this phase, a comprehensive peace agreement will be signed. This phase may also see heightened political mobilization. Conflict parties and stakeholders may organize political campaigns and public protests and speak out on the media or online.
Phase 4
Dedicated implementation bodies will be set up, such as political reform commissions or truth and reconciliation commissions. This phase may entail wide-ranging political reform processes as well as the establishment of new government entities and oversight bodies. Very often, this requires the support of third parties, which continue to mediate between the conflict parties, if disputes between them threaten to derail the process. Delays and setbacks in the implementation process are common, and the successful implementation depends on public buy-in. Hardliner groups that aim to spoil a peaceful settlement may boycott or sabotage established mechanisms. Importantly, signing the peace agreement may not in itself guarantee peace. Continued trust-building measures and, if necessary, the clarification or renegotiation of parts of the agreement may be required.