Scenario 3/4
This illustrative scenario describes options for digital inclusion to support a political transition. A National Dialogue Process is held after widespread popular protests, calling for the resignation of the national government and democratic reforms. After months of political mobilization, the country’s military leadership has ousted the long-term authoritarian ruler and has installed an interim military council. Following international pressure, the military council has agreed to hold a National Dialogue conference and country-wide consultations. The preparation of the process entails the setting-up of relevant steering bodies and the development of the overall agenda. This is followed by the main dialogue process, which is carried out through a combination of plenary sessions and more specialized working groups and consultations. A National Dialogue Conference is held, followed by an implementation process.
Phase 1
There is popular dissatisfaction with the government in power, for instance, expressed through popular protests. These involve a large number of people and organizations demonstrating and advocating for political change. Following increasing international pressure and continued domestic protests, the government agrees to hold a National Dialogue. However, it is likely that large parts of the political and military elite remain opposed to political change and undertake efforts to undermine the dialogue efforts.
Phase 2
The National Dialogue is officially announced, and preparations will begin. This requires the gathering of relevant information about the issues at stake and the definition of the Dialogue's mandate. The agenda will be set, and a chair and steering mechanisms will be selected. Participants will be identified, and arrangements for their inclusion and decision-making procedures developed. The planning and preparatory process can be participatory to various degrees and can provide limited levels of control to stakeholders and negotiation parties. For instance, the agenda may be set top-down by the government, while the participants have more freedom in developing the specific themes. There may also be different degrees of influence by third parties, including influential countries and organizations.
Phase 3
This phase involves various Dialogue activities at the local, regional and national level that aim at the development of a joint outcome document. These processes will be conducted by the mechanisms established earlier, such as consultations. The negotiations may be broad-based and inclusive, offering space to political parties, civil society, women, youth, business, religious, and traditional actors, or may be characterized by limited conventional inclusion, offering few seats for civil society and political parties, as well as top-down agenda setting. In addition, civil society actors may run parallel processes with the aim of broadening participation in the process. The phase often ends with a nation-wide National Dialogue Conference.
Phase 4
Following the negotiations, there may be a plenary vote on the agreed outcome document, and possibly a public referendum. Based on the outcome document, the government may agree on specific outcomes to be implemented, for instance through constitutional and legal reforms, efforts to deal with the past, and transitional justice. This may be facilitated by a proper infrastructure for implementation, including the necessary legal, constitutional or parliamentary entities, monitoring mechanisms, and follow-up dialogue forums through which unresolved questions can be addressed.