Scenario 4/4
This illustrative scenario describes options for digital inclusion to end a local insurgency. Following international condemnation of the government's attempt to suppress the armed uprising by military means, the government has agreed to enter negotiations under the auspices of a regional organization. The conflict was driven by grievances about political marginalization and economic exploitation. It took place in relative isolation from the country's urban center. The negotiations begin with secret meetings between representatives of the conflict parties, followed by a first round of informal talks. These lead to formal high-level negotiations, resulting in an agreement. Peacemaking efforts at lower tracks complement this effort. The negotiations are followed by an implementation process.
Phase 1
Following a prolonged period of armed violence, the purely military confrontation between the government and the insurgency group shifts towards efforts to find a negotiated solution to the conflict. There may be a first exchange of information between the conflict parties, indicating willingness to seek a negotiated settlement. A third party may facilitate such informal rapprochement. These developments remain mostly hidden from the public. There may have been earlier, failed attempts to resolve the conflict through a negotiated agreement.
Phase 2
Several rounds of informal negotiations between representatives of the conflict parties will take place. These are likely initiated or facilitated by a third party. They may take place through shuttle diplomacy without face-to-face meetings between the conflict parties, or informal meetings between representatives outside the country. There may also be technical workshops on the track-two level, involving experts that aim to find technical solutions to specific aspects of the conflict. This phase usually sees concessions from both sides, for instance, a withdrawal or repositioning of troops, the granting of amnesty, or joint security measures. There may be more substantial progress, such as the reaching of a ceasefire agreement or a unilateral cessation of hostilities. Such milestones may also result in the establishment of various follow-up mechanisms, such as ceasefire monitoring, which may, for instance, be set-up under the auspices of a regional organization with the support of national NGOs.
Phase 3
The negotiations will unfold over various rounds of high-level talks between the conflict parties. In addition, track-two workshops may continue to develop technical solutions to the conflict, which can inform the formal negotiation process. The talks may proceed slowly with little visible progress, for instance, through a few meetings between conflict party representatives, while the armed conflict on the ground continues. There may be heightened political mobilization, involving conflict parties, hardliners and peace-activists, engaging in conventional and online media as well as through public protests. The negotiations may evolve throughout several agreements. A framework agreement reached at the beginning of the negotiations may be followed by more detailed technical agreements on specific issues such as security, political, and economic arrangements. Each of these agreements may come with implementation mechanisms, which means that phases three and four can often overlap significantly. At the end of this phase, a comprehensive peace agreement is signed.
Phase 4
The peace agreement is signed and is ready for implementation. This often requires the creation of dedicated technical bodies, such as political reform commissions, or truth and reconciliation commissions. The implementation may involve wide-ranging political reform processes as well as the creation of new government entities and oversight bodies. Delays and setbacks in the implementation process are common, as parts of the agreement may be contested and require renegotiation. The process may also struggle due to defections or boycotts by hardliner groups. Signing the peace agreement may not in itself guarantee peace. Negotiations may lead to a bargaining deal that satisfies the leaders of the insurgent movement, but leaves the deeper causes of the conflict unresolved. Securing the buy-in of the majority population, building public support, and civil society oversight is critical to the success of this phase. Continued trust-building measures and, if necessary, the clarification or renegotiation of parts of the agreement may be required.