Phase 3
Formal negotiations
Phase description
The parties agree on an official peace process, which involves formal rounds of negotiations as well as technical meetings. The negotiations are likely to be held abroad and can span from a few weeks to several years. Especially in larger conflicts with a strong international dimension, negotiations may also take place across several negotiation tables and may be facilitated by various mediation initiatives. The negotiations may evolve over the course of several agreements. There may be a framework agreement reached at the beginning of this phase. This may be followed by more detailed technical agreements on specific issues, such as security, political, and economic arrangements. At the end of this phase, a comprehensive peace agreement will be signed. This phase may also see heightened political mobilization. Conflict parties and stakeholders may organize political campaigns and public protests and speak out on the media or online.
Explore the following 6 use case(s) of digital technology:
Use Case 1
Dynamic mapping of power relations
An online tool that allows for the interactive visualization of key peace process actors, their attitudes and interests, how these actors are connected, and the power relations between them. The data for this online dashboard would be collected by focal points through offline focus group discussions or individual interviews with key stakeholders. The tool could be periodically updated by the focal points to measure changes in the network of peace process actors. The data could be used by negotiators to inform the design of their mediation strategy. The tool could help mediators understand how attitude and interest changes among stakeholders relate to the causes and dynamics of conflict. Mediators could also analyze who of the stakeholders can influence attitude change and identify shared values and possible connectors among them.
This tool can be applied in phases 2 and 3.
Important context factors
The tool requires commitment from a mediator or mediation support actor to collect data continually. Depending on the context, there may be sensitivities around what information is shared by whom. A strong network of local focal points (for instance local civil society organisations) that support the assessment will also be needed.
Risks and possible unintended consequences
- Stakeholders may misrepresent their interests or power for strategic reasons
- Access to the field may be limited due to insecurity
- Stakeholders may have limited political will to contribute to the assessment
- The participation rate in the asessment may decrease over time
Strategic purpose of digital inclusion
Functions of digital Technology
Outputs of digital Technology
Technologies used
Online visualisation tool
Use Case 2
Countering misinformation about the negotiations
This reporting and analysis system tracks the spread of misinformation on social media and offline. The system would combine automatic monitoring of specific keywords and accounts on social media with reports from critical informants on rumors that they are picking up. Informants could be civil society actors trusted by the mediation team. Such rumors could include false information about security incidents, such as ceasefire violations, about the negotiation process, as well as any other information that mediators consider might derail peace talks. Once a rumour relevant to the negotiations is identified, the system would analyse its factual validity, source, spread and impact on public opinion. This analysis would be used by mediation support actors to counter the rumor with targeted messaging.
This tool can be applied in phases 2 and 3.
Important context factors
The availability of suitable informants is critical to the effectiveness of the system. The system requires a reliable and fast communication infrastructure that allows for swift analysis and response. The reach of the audience for counter messages will depend on their digital literacy, language diversity, and connectedness to communication infrastructures.
Risks and possible unintended consequences
- By addressing a rumour in order to debunk it, more attention may be drawn to it than if it had gone unmentioned
- Counter messages may not work if not appropriately crafted based on the context and the information ecosystem environment.
Strategic purpose of digital inclusion
Functions of digital Technology
Outputs of digital Technology
Technologies used
Apps, online forms, SMS systems, social media analysis tools
Use Case 3
Mapping voice on social media
This social media analysis tool identifies voices on social media platforms that relate to constituencies significant to a mediation process. It specifically aims to identify conflict stakeholders that are not the “usual suspects” (i.e., representatives of political parties or armed factions) and are therefore excluded from offline mediation activities. The tool would screen a stream of seed pages, and Twitter handles that have been curated manually by political analysts. The analysis would be conducted by identifying specific keywords or hashtags from the stream, followed by a network analysis that looks at who is connected to the particular seed pages or handles, or who uses the same keywords or hashtags that they do. The results of the social media analysis could be triangulated with data collected from focus group discussions to identify differences between online and offline representation. The analysis tool would help mediators to develop a formula for inclusion that does justice to the increasing role of social media in peace processes.
This tool can be used in phases 2 and 3.
Important context factors
This use case is only applicable where there is a thriving civil society that is vocal on public social media platforms. Cases where Twitter is used widely are most suited. Where Facebook is the primary platform in use, only public content can be easily accessed. The tool can also be best applied in longer-term dialogue processes that allow sufficient time for the analysis.
Risks and possible unintended consequences
- Not all groups important to an inclusive process may have vocal representatives online
- Some actors may not acknowledge the relevance of online actors and sentiments to the mediation process
Strategic purpose of digital inclusion
Functions of digital Technology
Outputs of digital Technology
Technologies used
Social media analysis tools
Use Case 4
Public digital consultations
This online discussion forum enables consultative processes with a broad cross-section of the population. The website would allow back-and-forth, interactive communication between the mediator and the population during the ongoing negotiation process, focused on specific and tangible elements of the negotiations. Ideally, such digital consultations should be complemented by offline consultations. A social media campaign could be run to invite people to the online discussion forum. Qualitative data gathered through this process could be analyzed and synthesized through text analysis tools that leverage Artificial Intelligence.
Important context factors
Digital consultations can only work if there is a high level of political will among those at the negotiation table, as well as a capacity to integrate large amounts of feedback into negotiations. In addition, the public should feel comfortable enough to express themselves openly through digital means and have access to relevant technologies.
Risks and possible unintended consequences
- Information that goes into a digital consultation may not be processed in time to feed into the negotiations
- The digital consultation may raise false expectations among the population if there is insufficient commitment to integrate the results into the negotation process
- There may be increased fragmentation and polarization in the population as a result of consulting more people about what’s on the agenda of discussions
- Spoilers may use the digital consultation to unduly skew the agenda of discussions
Strategic purpose of digital inclusion
Functions of digital Technology
Outputs of digital Technology
Technologies used
Online discussion forum, social media, Natural language processing
Use Case 5
Online expert focus groups
This tool facilitates online focus groups to discuss and flesh out in greater detail specific policy options that are debated at the negotiation table or in implementation bodies. To complement more broad-based involvement, these groups could tackle more complex questions, such as administrative reforms, decentralization, or resource governance. The focus groups could involve primarily national experts, in-country, or from the diaspora. They could be combined with capacity building measures that strengthen in-country expertise that supports the peace process in the long-term.
Important context factors
Experts must be available and identifiable. The group involved should be separate to the main negotiating teams to enable greater representation. National expertise on specific topics may differ from case to case.
Risks and possible unintended consequences
- The discussion may lead to greater polarization
- Leaks from the discussion may erode confidentiality in the process
- The participants may have limited trust in the technology or in other participants, resulting in a reluctance to share detailed advice or information
Strategic purpose of digital inclusion
Functions of digital Technology
Outputs of digital Technology
Technologies used
Video conferencing
Use Case 6
Digital review of draft agreement
This tool would be an adapted version of the "one text" procedure, which allows a broad range of conflict stakeholders to comment on a draft agreement text, or key provisions of a possible agreement. Participants, who are invited into the process, would be able to view an entire text on a dedicated online platform, and provide comments directly on the document. These comments would then be analyzed by the mediation team and incorporated into the next version of the agreement.
Important context factors
This process would require the text to be at a phase where it can be made available to a larger audience. It also requires a willingness of the negotiation parties to consider comments from a broader range of stakeholders. The participants need to be capable of comprehending the technical language of the agreement text and provide constructive feedback. Depending on the case, this will require additional capacity-building measures.
Risks and possible unintended consequences
- The text could be leaked in full or in part. Spoilers could use leaks to erode public confidence in the agreement or to entrench divisions further
- Trust in the process could be undermined if there is limited capacity to respond to a large number of comments
Strategic purpose of digital inclusion
Functions of digital Technology
Outputs of digital Technology
Technologies used
Online plattform, online discussion forum
Proceed to another phase
Phase 3