Phase 2
Post-electoral violence
Phase description
Following the elections, results will be contested, most likely by the losing party. More than one candidate or party may claim victory, and there may be allegations of electoral fraud. In the context of the contested elections, different forms of violence may break out. Spontaneous and disorganized protests can turn violent as a consequence of police or army crackdowns. Opposition politicians may be threatened, arrested or physically assaulted. Such acts may provoke more protests and more violence. In addition, organized militias may form and organize attacks against members of the other ethnic group. Civil society organizations will call for an end to violence, a peaceful resolution of the conflict, or to bring in a mediator. Third parties such as foreign governments may also call for an end to violence and increase the political pressure on the conflict parties, including through visits to the country. At the end of the phase, the leaders of the conflicting parties will eventually agree on negotiating a peaceful solution to the crisis.
Explore the following 3 use case(s) of digital technology:
Use Case 1
Understanding narratives in digital qualitative media
This analysis tool identifies key narratives about the "Other" that shape the relationship between the conflict parties, which are shared in a broad selection of digital media - including social media and news websites. Sources for the analysis tool would be curated by a mediation support actor. A network of volunteer analysts would collect relevant social media content and conduct the data analysis. If large enough amounts of data are available, machine learning tools could support the analysis of the social media content. The tool would help mediators to debunk stereotypes and to encourage conflict party representatives to foster more positive community relations at the negotiation table.
Important context factors
This tool requires significant digital media sources. The level of freedom of expression and freedom of the press will influence the variety of narratives shared.
Risks and possible unintended consequences
- The analysis may be baised if data sources are not carefully chosen
- The depth of results may be insufficient, as there are limits to the (current) capacity of machine learning tools to conduct this kind of analysis.
Strategic purpose of digital inclusion
Functions of digital Technology
Outputs of digital Technology
Technologies used
Data aggregator, Natural language processing
Use Case 2
Rapid polling: representation
A polling system used to identify where representation lies in the run-up to negotiations. The tool would ask members of the public about what individuals and organizations best represent their interests. The results of this poll could help to determine critical actors who need to be included at the negotiation table and inform the design of the negotiation process. The polling could take place through dedicated polling apps, online forms, text messaging applications, or SMS systems. The information would be collected, classified, analyzed, and conclusions shared with mediators. It could also be shared back to the polling participants and distributed among a broader set of organizations involved in the peace process.
Important context factors
There would need to be some pre-existing public acceptance of the process for people to agree to contribute to a poll, and political will from negotiators to incorporate this data into the selection of representatives. The credibility of the organisation conducting the polling will be critical to its success.
Risks and possible unintended consequences
- Groups associated with conflict parties may use the polls to unduly influence who gets representation at the table
- The polling system may be hacked to reveal how certain individuals or groups are voting
- People may become disillusioned with the process if they feel poll results are not transparently included in the choice of representatives
- The analysis may be biased, depending on the sampling methodology used
Strategic purpose of digital inclusion
Functions of digital Technology
Outputs of digital Technology
Technologies used
Online forms, polling apps, messaging services, SMS systems
Use Case 3
Digital civilian monitoring of security incidents
A digital reporting system that allows trained voluntary civilian monitors and the general public to input any incidents on the ground. The collected data would provide up-to-date information on the security situation across the country. Individuals would be able to input through SMS, online, or through a mobile application. A public version would display general information, but would not be traceable to individual reporters. All reports would be triangulated and verified by a team of validators before being published. Members of the public who report an incident could opt to be contacted by trained civilian monitors as part of the verification process. The system should be clearly linked to a response mechanism that can deal with reported incidents.
The tool can be used in phases 2, 3 and 4.
Important context factors
The system will be most successful if used to complement existing sources. The effectiveness of the system depends on the responsibility and reliability of the civilian monitors. In conflict-affected areas, there may be limited availability of public digital infrastructure.
Risks and possible unintended consequences
- Civilian monitors may face security threats, especially if their location or identity is disclosed through surveillance
- Malicious actors may generate false reports based on fabricated information
- Information of security incidents may destabilize the situation and result in more violence
Strategic purpose of digital inclusion
Functions of digital Technology
Outputs of digital Technology
Technologies used
Apps, SMS systems, online dashboard
Proceed to another phase
Phase 2