Scenario 1/4
Negotiations after a full-fledged civil war
This illustrative scenario describes options for digital inclusion during the negotiations of a Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) to terminate a large-scale armed conflict. Following a decade-long, full-fledged civil war that has fragmented the country along ethnic and regional lines, two major conflict parties enter a process of negotiations. The conflict involved large parts of the country and affected almost the entire population. The conflict is ripe for mediation, for instance, due to a change in the regional context that has led to a loss of military and political support for the main conflict parties, triggering negotiations. Following several rounds of informal consultations brokered by a third party, the parties reach a permanent ceasefire deal. Formal negotiations follow, leading to the signing of various protocols, such as on security arrangements, governance, and wealth sharing. Eventually, these individual protocols are merged into a Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA). The negotiations are followed by an implementation process.
Phase 1
Shift towards negotiations
A negotiated settlement between the conflict parties becomes more likely, as the dynamics shift from a purely military confrontation towards efforts to find a negotiated solution to the conflict. A first informal exchange between the conflict parties takes place. This may be facilitated by a third party, for instance, a regional organization, foreign government or non-governmental organization. These third parties may also offer to mediate between the parties or conduct trust-building measures that involve the conflict-affected population. National civil society may also campaign for an end to violence.
Phase 2
Informal negotiations
Several rounds of informal negotiations between representatives of the conflict parties will take place. These are likely to be initiated or facilitated by a third party. They may take place through shuttle diplomacy without face-to-face meetings between the conflict parties, or meetings between representatives outside the country. This phase usually sees concessions from both sides to increase trust and de-escalate the conflict, including the withdrawal or repositioning of troops, the release of political prisoners, or the granting of amnesty. The parties may also reach a ceasefire agreement or implement a unilateral cessation of hostilities, which constitute the first formal milestones in the peace process. Follow-up mechanisms may also be established, such as for cease-fire monitoring.
Phase 3
Formal negotiations
The parties agree on an official peace process, which involves formal rounds of negotiations as well as technical meetings. The negotiations are likely to be held abroad and can span from a few weeks to several years. Especially in larger conflicts with a strong international dimension, negotiations may also take place across several negotiation tables and may be facilitated by various mediation initiatives. The negotiations may evolve over the course of several agreements. There may be a framework agreement reached at the beginning of this phase. This may be followed by more detailed technical agreements on specific issues, such as security, political, and economic arrangements. At the end of this phase, a comprehensive peace agreement will be signed. This phase may also see heightened political mobilization. Conflict parties and stakeholders may organize political campaigns and public protests and speak out on the media or online.
Phase 4
Agreement implementation
Dedicated implementation bodies will be set up, such as political reform commissions or truth and reconciliation commissions. This phase may entail wide-ranging political reform processes as well as the establishment of new government entities and oversight bodies. Very often, this requires the support of third parties, which continue to mediate between the conflict parties, if disputes between them threaten to derail the process. Delays and setbacks in the implementation process are common, and the successful implementation depends on public buy-in. Hardliner groups that aim to spoil a peaceful settlement may boycott or sabotage established mechanisms. Importantly, signing the peace agreement may not in itself guarantee peace. Continued trust-building measures and, if necessary, the clarification or renegotiation of parts of the agreement may be required.
Phase 1
Shift towards negotiations
Phase description
A negotiated settlement between the conflict parties becomes more likely, as the dynamics shift from a purely military confrontation towards efforts to find a negotiated solution to the conflict. A first informal exchange between the conflict parties takes place. This may be facilitated by a third party, for instance, a regional organization, foreign government or non-governmental organization. These third parties may also offer to mediate between the parties or conduct trust-building measures that involve the conflict-affected population. National civil society may also campaign for an end to violence.
Explore the following 1 use case(s) of digital technology:
Use Case 1
Digital campaign to build empathy between conflict parties
A Facebook campaign that encourages citizens to share positive experiences of engaging with other conflict stakeholders, to build momentum for the peace process and encourage the transformation of community relations. The campaign would begin with a selection of videos showing people in conversation with others, asking questions and demonstrating empathy with people who have different, and opposing views and experiences. The campaign would then launch an open call for submissions by citizens to share their videos as part of a nation-wide competition. This could be accompanied by targeted outreach activities. Specific communities could be coached and encouraged to experiment with videos, for instance on less sensitive issues than those directly confronting the core issues of the conflict. Videos would then be shared regularly among the participants of the campaign, demonstrating the value of human stories across the divide.
Important context factors
This campaign would work in contexts where there is a lack of shared narratives on the development of the conflict and the experiences of the other side(s). The campaign could be constrained if there is no or only limited willingness to speak out online. An opressive information environment, with limited freedom of expression would further reduce the impact of the campaign.
Risks and possible unintended consequences
- The campaign may be co-opted and used for political purposes
- There may be security risks for individuals featuring in the videos
- The campaign may have limited reach, depending on the platform used
Strategic purpose of digital inclusion
Functions of digital Technology
Outputs of digital Technology
Technologies used
Facebook, videos, animation
Proceed to another phase
Phase 1
Shift towards negotiations
Phase 2
Informal negotiations
Phase description
Several rounds of informal negotiations between representatives of the conflict parties will take place. These are likely to be initiated or facilitated by a third party. They may take place through shuttle diplomacy without face-to-face meetings between the conflict parties, or meetings between representatives outside the country. This phase usually sees concessions from both sides to increase trust and de-escalate the conflict, including the withdrawal or repositioning of troops, the release of political prisoners, or the granting of amnesty. The parties may also reach a ceasefire agreement or implement a unilateral cessation of hostilities, which constitute the first formal milestones in the peace process. Follow-up mechanisms may also be established, such as for cease-fire monitoring.
Explore the following 4 use case(s) of digital technology:
Use Case 1
Dynamic mapping of power relations
An online tool that allows for the interactive visualization of key peace process actors, their attitudes and interests, how these actors are connected, and the power relations between them. The data for this online dashboard would be collected by focal points through offline focus group discussions or individual interviews with key stakeholders. The tool could be periodically updated by the focal points to measure changes in the network of peace process actors. The data could be used by negotiators to inform the design of their mediation strategy. The tool could help mediators understand how attitude and interest changes among stakeholders relate to the causes and dynamics of conflict. Mediators could also analyze who of the stakeholders can influence attitude change and identify shared values and possible connectors among them.
This tool can be applied in phases 2 and 3.
Important context factors
The tool requires commitment from a mediator or mediation support actor to collect data continually. Depending on the context, there may be sensitivities around what information is shared by whom. A strong network of local focal points (for instance local civil society organisations) that support the assessment will also be needed.
Risks and possible unintended consequences
- Stakeholders may misrepresent their interests or power for strategic reasons
- Access to the field may be limited due to insecurity
- Stakeholders may have limited political will to contribute to the assessment
- The participation rate in the asessment may decrease over time
Strategic purpose of digital inclusion
Functions of digital Technology
Outputs of digital Technology
Technologies used
Online visualisation tool
Use Case 2
Virtual exchange between conflict parties
This tool could be used to build trust between communities on different sides of the conflict and build momentum for a developing or ongoing peace process. Cohorts of 8-12 people reflecting different dividing lines would participate in a series of exchanges. The topics of each discussion would be announced, and the participants would be asked to provide their feedback. The virtual exchange would take place before or in parallel to the formal dialogue process, focusing on shared needs and allowing participants to lead the conversation and topics. Through the process, participants would begin to understand and feel empathy towards each other, supporting an enabling environment for peace negotiations.
This tool can be used in phases 2 and 3.
Important context factors
Successful virtual exchange requires strong facilitation and a high quality platform to ensure success. The type of conflict and types of grievances among the population will influence to which degree a meaningful online dialogue is possible. The proximity of the participants to the formal peace negotiations will determine the impact of the virtual exchange on the overall mediation.
Risks and possible unintended consequences
- Spoilers may aim to sabotage the dialogue by leaking the content of the discussions or spreading misinformation about it
- High-profile participants may assert undue influence and monopolize the dialogue
- There may be limited progress or limited substantial outcomes of the dialogue activities
Strategic purpose of digital inclusion
Functions of digital Technology
Outputs of digital Technology
Technologies used
Video conferencing
Use Case 3
Countering misinformation about the negotiations
This reporting and analysis system tracks the spread of misinformation on social media and offline. The system would combine automatic monitoring of specific keywords and accounts on social media with reports from critical informants on rumors that they are picking up. Informants could be civil society actors trusted by the mediation team. Such rumors could include false information about security incidents, such as ceasefire violations, about the negotiation process, as well as any other information that mediators consider might derail peace talks. Once a rumour relevant to the negotiations is identified, the system would analyse its factual validity, source, spread and impact on public opinion. This analysis would be used by mediation support actors to counter the rumor with targeted messaging.
This tool can be applied in phases 2 and 3.
Important context factors
The availability of suitable informants is critical to the effectiveness of the system. The system requires a reliable and fast communication infrastructure that allows for swift analysis and response. The reach of the audience for counter messages will depend on their digital literacy, language diversity, and connectedness to communication infrastructures.
Risks and possible unintended consequences
- By addressing a rumour in order to debunk it, more attention may be drawn to it than if it had gone unmentioned
- Counter messages may not work if not appropriately crafted based on the context and the information ecosystem environment.
Strategic purpose of digital inclusion
Functions of digital Technology
Outputs of digital Technology
Technologies used
Apps, online forms, SMS systems, social media analysis tools
Use Case 4
Mapping voice on social media
This social media analysis tool identifies voices on social media platforms that relate to constituencies significant to a mediation process. It specifically aims to identify conflict stakeholders that are not the “usual suspects” (i.e., representatives of political parties or armed factions) and are therefore excluded from offline mediation activities. The tool would screen a stream of seed pages, and Twitter handles that have been curated manually by political analysts. The analysis would be conducted by identifying specific keywords or hashtags from the stream, followed by a network analysis that looks at who is connected to the particular seed pages or handles, or who uses the same keywords or hashtags that they do. The results of the social media analysis could be triangulated with data collected from focus group discussions to identify differences between online and offline representation. The analysis tool would help mediators to develop a formula for inclusion that does justice to the increasing role of social media in peace processes.
This tool can be used in phases 2 and 3.
Important context factors
This use case is only applicable where there is a thriving civil society that is vocal on public social media platforms. Cases where Twitter is used widely are most suited. Where Facebook is the primary platform in use, only public content can be easily accessed. The tool can also be best applied in longer-term dialogue processes that allow sufficient time for the analysis.
Risks and possible unintended consequences
- Not all groups important to an inclusive process may have vocal representatives online
- Some actors may not acknowledge the relevance of online actors and sentiments to the mediation process
Strategic purpose of digital inclusion
Functions of digital Technology
Outputs of digital Technology
Technologies used
Social media analysis tools
Proceed to another phase
Phase 2
Informal negotiations
Phase 3
Formal negotiations
Phase description
The parties agree on an official peace process, which involves formal rounds of negotiations as well as technical meetings. The negotiations are likely to be held abroad and can span from a few weeks to several years. Especially in larger conflicts with a strong international dimension, negotiations may also take place across several negotiation tables and may be facilitated by various mediation initiatives. The negotiations may evolve over the course of several agreements. There may be a framework agreement reached at the beginning of this phase. This may be followed by more detailed technical agreements on specific issues, such as security, political, and economic arrangements. At the end of this phase, a comprehensive peace agreement will be signed. This phase may also see heightened political mobilization. Conflict parties and stakeholders may organize political campaigns and public protests and speak out on the media or online.
Explore the following 6 use case(s) of digital technology:
Use Case 1
Dynamic mapping of power relations
An online tool that allows for the interactive visualization of key peace process actors, their attitudes and interests, how these actors are connected, and the power relations between them. The data for this online dashboard would be collected by focal points through offline focus group discussions or individual interviews with key stakeholders. The tool could be periodically updated by the focal points to measure changes in the network of peace process actors. The data could be used by negotiators to inform the design of their mediation strategy. The tool could help mediators understand how attitude and interest changes among stakeholders relate to the causes and dynamics of conflict. Mediators could also analyze who of the stakeholders can influence attitude change and identify shared values and possible connectors among them.
This tool can be applied in phases 2 and 3.
Important context factors
The tool requires commitment from a mediator or mediation support actor to collect data continually. Depending on the context, there may be sensitivities around what information is shared by whom. A strong network of local focal points (for instance local civil society organisations) that support the assessment will also be needed.
Risks and possible unintended consequences
- Stakeholders may misrepresent their interests or power for strategic reasons
- Access to the field may be limited due to insecurity
- Stakeholders may have limited political will to contribute to the assessment
- The participation rate in the asessment may decrease over time
Strategic purpose of digital inclusion
Functions of digital Technology
Outputs of digital Technology
Technologies used
Online visualisation tool
Use Case 2
Countering misinformation about the negotiations
This reporting and analysis system tracks the spread of misinformation on social media and offline. The system would combine automatic monitoring of specific keywords and accounts on social media with reports from critical informants on rumors that they are picking up. Informants could be civil society actors trusted by the mediation team. Such rumors could include false information about security incidents, such as ceasefire violations, about the negotiation process, as well as any other information that mediators consider might derail peace talks. Once a rumour relevant to the negotiations is identified, the system would analyse its factual validity, source, spread and impact on public opinion. This analysis would be used by mediation support actors to counter the rumor with targeted messaging.
This tool can be applied in phases 2 and 3.
Important context factors
The availability of suitable informants is critical to the effectiveness of the system. The system requires a reliable and fast communication infrastructure that allows for swift analysis and response. The reach of the audience for counter messages will depend on their digital literacy, language diversity, and connectedness to communication infrastructures.
Risks and possible unintended consequences
- By addressing a rumour in order to debunk it, more attention may be drawn to it than if it had gone unmentioned
- Counter messages may not work if not appropriately crafted based on the context and the information ecosystem environment.
Strategic purpose of digital inclusion
Functions of digital Technology
Outputs of digital Technology
Technologies used
Apps, online forms, SMS systems, social media analysis tools
Use Case 3
Mapping voice on social media
This social media analysis tool identifies voices on social media platforms that relate to constituencies significant to a mediation process. It specifically aims to identify conflict stakeholders that are not the “usual suspects” (i.e., representatives of political parties or armed factions) and are therefore excluded from offline mediation activities. The tool would screen a stream of seed pages, and Twitter handles that have been curated manually by political analysts. The analysis would be conducted by identifying specific keywords or hashtags from the stream, followed by a network analysis that looks at who is connected to the particular seed pages or handles, or who uses the same keywords or hashtags that they do. The results of the social media analysis could be triangulated with data collected from focus group discussions to identify differences between online and offline representation. The analysis tool would help mediators to develop a formula for inclusion that does justice to the increasing role of social media in peace processes.
This tool can be used in phases 2 and 3.
Important context factors
This use case is only applicable where there is a thriving civil society that is vocal on public social media platforms. Cases where Twitter is used widely are most suited. Where Facebook is the primary platform in use, only public content can be easily accessed. The tool can also be best applied in longer-term dialogue processes that allow sufficient time for the analysis.
Risks and possible unintended consequences
- Not all groups important to an inclusive process may have vocal representatives online
- Some actors may not acknowledge the relevance of online actors and sentiments to the mediation process
Strategic purpose of digital inclusion
Functions of digital Technology
Outputs of digital Technology
Technologies used
Social media analysis tools
Use Case 4
Public digital consultations
This online discussion forum enables consultative processes with a broad cross-section of the population. The website would allow back-and-forth, interactive communication between the mediator and the population during the ongoing negotiation process, focused on specific and tangible elements of the negotiations. Ideally, such digital consultations should be complemented by offline consultations. A social media campaign could be run to invite people to the online discussion forum. Qualitative data gathered through this process could be analyzed and synthesized through text analysis tools that leverage Artificial Intelligence.
Important context factors
Digital consultations can only work if there is a high level of political will among those at the negotiation table, as well as a capacity to integrate large amounts of feedback into negotiations. In addition, the public should feel comfortable enough to express themselves openly through digital means and have access to relevant technologies.
Risks and possible unintended consequences
- Information that goes into a digital consultation may not be processed in time to feed into the negotiations
- The digital consultation may raise false expectations among the population if there is insufficient commitment to integrate the results into the negotation process
- There may be increased fragmentation and polarization in the population as a result of consulting more people about what’s on the agenda of discussions
- Spoilers may use the digital consultation to unduly skew the agenda of discussions
Strategic purpose of digital inclusion
Functions of digital Technology
Outputs of digital Technology
Technologies used
Online discussion forum, social media, Natural language processing
Use Case 5
Online expert focus groups
This tool facilitates online focus groups to discuss and flesh out in greater detail specific policy options that are debated at the negotiation table or in implementation bodies. To complement more broad-based involvement, these groups could tackle more complex questions, such as administrative reforms, decentralization, or resource governance. The focus groups could involve primarily national experts, in-country, or from the diaspora. They could be combined with capacity building measures that strengthen in-country expertise that supports the peace process in the long-term.
Important context factors
Experts must be available and identifiable. The group involved should be separate to the main negotiating teams to enable greater representation. National expertise on specific topics may differ from case to case.
Risks and possible unintended consequences
- The discussion may lead to greater polarization
- Leaks from the discussion may erode confidentiality in the process
- The participants may have limited trust in the technology or in other participants, resulting in a reluctance to share detailed advice or information
Strategic purpose of digital inclusion
Functions of digital Technology
Outputs of digital Technology
Technologies used
Video conferencing
Use Case 6
Digital review of draft agreement
This tool would be an adapted version of the "one text" procedure, which allows a broad range of conflict stakeholders to comment on a draft agreement text, or key provisions of a possible agreement. Participants, who are invited into the process, would be able to view an entire text on a dedicated online platform, and provide comments directly on the document. These comments would then be analyzed by the mediation team and incorporated into the next version of the agreement.
Important context factors
This process would require the text to be at a phase where it can be made available to a larger audience. It also requires a willingness of the negotiation parties to consider comments from a broader range of stakeholders. The participants need to be capable of comprehending the technical language of the agreement text and provide constructive feedback. Depending on the case, this will require additional capacity-building measures.
Risks and possible unintended consequences
- The text could be leaked in full or in part. Spoilers could use leaks to erode public confidence in the agreement or to entrench divisions further
- Trust in the process could be undermined if there is limited capacity to respond to a large number of comments
Strategic purpose of digital inclusion
Functions of digital Technology
Outputs of digital Technology
Technologies used
Online plattform, online discussion forum
Proceed to another phase
Phase 3
Formal negotiations
Phase 4
Agreement implementation
Phase description
Dedicated implementation bodies will be set up, such as political reform commissions or truth and reconciliation commissions. This phase may entail wide-ranging political reform processes as well as the establishment of new government entities and oversight bodies. Very often, this requires the support of third parties, which continue to mediate between the conflict parties, if disputes between them threaten to derail the process. Delays and setbacks in the implementation process are common, and the successful implementation depends on public buy-in. Hardliner groups that aim to spoil a peaceful settlement may boycott or sabotage established mechanisms. Importantly, signing the peace agreement may not in itself guarantee peace. Continued trust-building measures and, if necessary, the clarification or renegotiation of parts of the agreement may be required.
Explore the following 1 use case(s) of digital technology:
Use Case 1
Rapid polling: public opinion on an agreement
A polling system used to understand shifting public opinion after an agreement is signed. The results of this poll can help to know where obstacles may lie in the implementation process and to identify areas where continued mediation support may be needed. The polling exercise could be repeated regularly in the course of the implementation process. The polling could take place through dedicated polling apps, online forms, text messaging applications, or SMS systems. The information would be collected, classified, analyzed, and conclusions shared with mediators. The data could also be shared back to the polling participants and distributed among a broader set of organizations involved in the peace process.
Important context factors
There needs to be some pre-existing public acceptance of the process for people to agree to contribute to a poll, and political will from negotiators to incorporate this data into the selection of representatives. The credibility of the organisation conducting the polling will be critical to its success.
Risks and possible unintended consequences
- The polling system may be hacked to reveal how certain individuals or groups are voting
- People may become disillusioned with the process if they feel poll results are not transparently included in the choice of representatives
- The analysis may be biased, depending on the sampling methodology used
- High levels of reporting on certain indicators may distort representativeness
- The questions themselves may erode support for the agreement by sharing its content, if not carefully framed
Strategic purpose of digital inclusion
Functions of digital Technology
Outputs of digital Technology
Technologies used
Online forms, polling apps, messaging services, SMS systems
Proceed to another phase
Phase 4