Scenario 3/4
National Dialogue process after a popular uprising
This illustrative scenario describes options for digital inclusion to support a political transition. A National Dialogue Process is held after widespread popular protests, calling for the resignation of the national government and democratic reforms. After months of political mobilization, the country’s military leadership has ousted the long-term authoritarian ruler and has installed an interim military council. Following international pressure, the military council has agreed to hold a National Dialogue conference and country-wide consultations. The preparation of the process entails the setting-up of relevant steering bodies and the development of the overall agenda. This is followed by the main dialogue process, which is carried out through a combination of plenary sessions and more specialized working groups and consultations. A National Dialogue Conference is held, followed by an implementation process.
Phase 1
The transition trigger
There is popular dissatisfaction with the government in power, for instance, expressed through popular protests. These involve a large number of people and organizations demonstrating and advocating for political change. Following increasing international pressure and continued domestic protests, the government agrees to hold a National Dialogue. However, it is likely that large parts of the political and military elite remain opposed to political change and undertake efforts to undermine the dialogue efforts.
Phase 2
Planning and preparation
The National Dialogue is officially announced, and preparations will begin. This requires the gathering of relevant information about the issues at stake and the definition of the Dialogue's mandate. The agenda will be set, and a chair and steering mechanisms will be selected. Participants will be identified, and arrangements for their inclusion and decision-making procedures developed. The planning and preparatory process can be participatory to various degrees and can provide limited levels of control to stakeholders and negotiation parties. For instance, the agenda may be set top-down by the government, while the participants have more freedom in developing the specific themes. There may also be different degrees of influence by third parties, including influential countries and organizations.
Phase 3
Main negotiations
This phase involves various Dialogue activities at the local, regional and national level that aim at the development of a joint outcome document. These processes will be conducted by the mechanisms established earlier, such as consultations. The negotiations may be broad-based and inclusive, offering space to political parties, civil society, women, youth, business, religious, and traditional actors, or may be characterized by limited conventional inclusion, offering few seats for civil society and political parties, as well as top-down agenda setting. In addition, civil society actors may run parallel processes with the aim of broadening participation in the process. The phase often ends with a nation-wide National Dialogue Conference.
Phase 4
Conclusion and implementation
Following the negotiations, there may be a plenary vote on the agreed outcome document, and possibly a public referendum. Based on the outcome document, the government may agree on specific outcomes to be implemented, for instance through constitutional and legal reforms, efforts to deal with the past, and transitional justice. This may be facilitated by a proper infrastructure for implementation, including the necessary legal, constitutional or parliamentary entities, monitoring mechanisms, and follow-up dialogue forums through which unresolved questions can be addressed.
Phase 1
The transition trigger
Phase description
There is popular dissatisfaction with the government in power, for instance, expressed through popular protests. These involve a large number of people and organizations demonstrating and advocating for political change. Following increasing international pressure and continued domestic protests, the government agrees to hold a National Dialogue. However, it is likely that large parts of the political and military elite remain opposed to political change and undertake efforts to undermine the dialogue efforts.
Explore the following 1 use case(s) of digital technology:
Use Case 1
Online collaboration in support of the peace process
This website enables collaboration on initiatives relating to the peace talks. Participants from different stakeholder groups can work together to identify common concerns, build coalitions around key issues, and plan joint actions that support the mediation. In addition, members of the public could use the site to identify activities happening in their locality and join them. Results of the collaboration could feed into the negotiation, for instance, by enabling a collaborative approach to agenda-setting. The tool could also help building pressure on the negotiation parties by demonstrating public support for peace and advocating for specific process outcomes. Once an agreement has been reached, the website could also be used to organize initiatives that are included in the formal provisions of the peace agreement. A password-protected version of the website could be available for a closed group of civil society actors for more direct coordination. This tool can be used accross all phases of the process.
Important context factors
This tool requires a relatively open environment and general support for peace from the population, as well as an active civil society and community leaders. The site will require a wide user base from the start to ensure it generates sufficient momentum through a critical mass of activities. This project will be constrained in the context of a divided society, with limited civil society groups and restricted freedom of expression. The use case requires access to the internet for large parts of the population and some culture of civic engagement.
Risks and possible unintended consequences
- There may be limited political momentum if the site is not populated with an initial set of engaging projects
- The site may be misused for initiatives that reinforce division and polarization, or promote partisan interests
Strategic purpose of digital inclusion
Functions of digital Technology
Outputs of digital Technology
Technologies used
Website
Proceed to another phase
Phase 1
The transition trigger
Phase 2
Planning and preparation
Phase description
The National Dialogue is officially announced, and preparations will begin. This requires the gathering of relevant information about the issues at stake and the definition of the Dialogue's mandate. The agenda will be set, and a chair and steering mechanisms will be selected. Participants will be identified, and arrangements for their inclusion and decision-making procedures developed. The planning and preparatory process can be participatory to various degrees and can provide limited levels of control to stakeholders and negotiation parties. For instance, the agenda may be set top-down by the government, while the participants have more freedom in developing the specific themes. There may also be different degrees of influence by third parties, including influential countries and organizations.
Explore the following 3 use case(s) of digital technology:
Use Case 1
Online collaboration in support of the peace process
This website enables collaboration on initiatives relating to the peace talks. Participants from different stakeholder groups can work together to identify common concerns, build coalitions around key issues, and plan joint actions that support the mediation. In addition, members of the public could use the site to identify activities happening in their locality and join them. Results of the collaboration could feed into the negotiation, for instance, by enabling a collaborative approach to agenda-setting. The tool could also help building pressure on the negotiation parties by demonstrating public support for peace and advocating for specific process outcomes. Once an agreement has been reached, the website could also be used to organize initiatives that are included in the formal provisions of the peace agreement. A password-protected version of the website could be available for a closed group of civil society actors for more direct coordination. This tool can be used accross all phases of the process.
Important context factors
This tool requires a relatively open environment and general support for peace from the population, as well as an active civil society and community leaders. The site will require a wide user base from the start to ensure it generates sufficient momentum through a critical mass of activities. This project will be constrained in the context of a divided society, with limited civil society groups and restricted freedom of expression. The use case requires access to the internet for large parts of the population and some culture of civic engagement.
Risks and possible unintended consequences
- There may be limited political momentum if the site is not populated with an initial set of engaging projects
- The site may be misused for initiatives that reinforce division and polarization, or promote partisan interests
Strategic purpose of digital inclusion
Functions of digital Technology
Outputs of digital Technology
Technologies used
Website
Use Case 2
Participatory peace campaign
This online campaign demonstrates progress in the peace process and pressures the conflict parties to join the formal negotiation process. The campaign would operate on social media, where mediation support actors would share multi-media content (videos and photos) that document progress in the peace process. Each piece of media content would link to an online platform through which users could reach out to their political or community representative. Once a formal negotiation process is established, the campaign would demonstrate that there has been tangible progress. It would also invite the users to lobby their political representatives to commit to a peaceful settlement of the conflict. There could also be a “call for action” element, integrated at a later stage. For instance, people could register with the page to sign up for more confidence-building measures and then choose to film or otherwise disseminate that information.
Important context factors
Such a campaign will work best where the population (or at least parts) are in favor of a peaceful settlement. Some degree of freedom of expression is necessary so that people feel safe enough to share content. The campaign will be less effective in the context of a strongly divided population.
Risks and possible unintended consequences
- The campaign may lose momentum and the participants may become disengaged, particularly in the call to action
- A dominant group or party may use the campaign to promote hegemonic views/narratives
- The campaign may be seen as a PR-tool for the peace process if it does not have a broad-based buy-in
- The campaign may revive grievances, or the participants may be unable to agree on a shared political narrative.
Strategic purpose of digital inclusion
Functions of digital Technology
Outputs of digital Technology
Technologies used
Online platform, apps, social media
Use Case 3
Rapid polling: agenda setting
A polling system used to identify and understand core constituency issues in the run-up to negotiations, especially of marginalized and underrepresented groups. The results of this poll would be used for agenda setting and to inform the design of the negotiation process. The polling could take place through dedicated polling apps, online forms, text messaging applications, or SMS systems. The information would be collected, classified, analyzed, and conclusions shared with mediators. The data could also be shared back to the polling participants and distributed among a broader set of organizations involved in the peace process.
Important context factors
There needs to be some pre-existing public acceptance of the process for people to agree to contribute to a poll. Conflict parties and mediators should be willing to incorporate the polling data into the agenda-setting process. The credibility of the organization conducting polling is critical to its success.
Risks and possible unintended consequences
- Groups associated with conflict parties may use the polls to unduly influence the agenda
- Participants may become disillusioned with the process if they feel poll results are not transparently included in the agenda-setting process
- The analysis may be biased, depending on the sampling methodology used
- Mediators may become overwhelmed with data and may lack the capacity to analyze it
- Polls could lead to heightened expectations that cannot be met by the mediation
Strategic purpose of digital inclusion
Functions of digital Technology
Outputs of digital Technology
Technologies used
Online forms, polling apps, messaging services, SMS systems
Proceed to another phase
Phase 2
Planning and preparation
Phase 3
Main negotiations
Phase description
This phase involves various Dialogue activities at the local, regional and national level that aim at the development of a joint outcome document. These processes will be conducted by the mechanisms established earlier, such as consultations. The negotiations may be broad-based and inclusive, offering space to political parties, civil society, women, youth, business, religious, and traditional actors, or may be characterized by limited conventional inclusion, offering few seats for civil society and political parties, as well as top-down agenda setting. In addition, civil society actors may run parallel processes with the aim of broadening participation in the process. The phase often ends with a nation-wide National Dialogue Conference.
Explore the following 4 use case(s) of digital technology:
Use Case 1
Online collaboration in support of the peace process
This website enables collaboration on initiatives relating to the peace talks. Participants from different stakeholder groups can work together to identify common concerns, build coalitions around key issues, and plan joint actions that support the mediation. In addition, members of the public could use the site to identify activities happening in their locality and join them. Results of the collaboration could feed into the negotiation, for instance, by enabling a collaborative approach to agenda-setting. The tool could also help building pressure on the negotiation parties by demonstrating public support for peace and advocating for specific process outcomes. Once an agreement has been reached, the website could also be used to organize initiatives that are included in the formal provisions of the peace agreement. A password-protected version of the website could be available for a closed group of civil society actors for more direct coordination. This tool can be used accross all phases of the process.
Important context factors
This tool requires a relatively open environment and general support for peace from the population, as well as an active civil society and community leaders. The site will require a wide user base from the start to ensure it generates sufficient momentum through a critical mass of activities. This project will be constrained in the context of a divided society, with limited civil society groups and restricted freedom of expression. The use case requires access to the internet for large parts of the population and some culture of civic engagement.
Risks and possible unintended consequences
- There may be limited political momentum if the site is not populated with an initial set of engaging projects
- The site may be misused for initiatives that reinforce division and polarization, or promote partisan interests
Strategic purpose of digital inclusion
Functions of digital Technology
Outputs of digital Technology
Technologies used
Website
Use Case 2
Public digital consultations
This online discussion forum enables consultative processes with a broad cross-section of the population. The website would allow back-and-forth, interactive communication between the mediator and the population during the ongoing negotiation process, focused on specific and tangible elements of the negotiations. Ideally, such digital consultations should be complemented by offline consultations. A social media campaign could be run to invite people to the online discussion forum. Qualitative data gathered through this process could be analyzed and synthesized through text analysis tools that leverage Artificial Intelligence.
Important context factors
Digital consultations require a high level of political will among those at the negotiation table, as well as a capacity to integrate large amounts of feedback into negotiations. In addition, the public should feel comfortable enough to express themselves openly through digital means and have access to relevant technologies.
Risks and possible unintended consequences
- Information that goes into a digital consultation may not be processed in time to feed into the negotiations
- The digital consultation may raise false expectations among the population if there is insufficient commitment to integrate the results into the negotation process
- There may be increased fragmentation and polarization in the population as a result of consulting more people about what’s on the agenda of discussions
- Spoilers may use the digital consultation to unduly skew the agenda of discussions
Strategic purpose of digital inclusion
Functions of digital Technology
Outputs of digital Technology
Technologies used
Online discussion forum, social media, Natural language processing
Use Case 3
Virtual exchange between conflict parties
This tool could be used to build trust between communities on different sides of the conflict and build momentum for a developing or ongoing peace process. Cohorts of 8-12 people reflecting different dividing lines would participate in a series of exchanges. The topics of each discussion would be announced, and the participants would be asked to provide their feedback. The virtual exchange would take place before or in parallel to the formal dialogue process, focusing on shared needs and allowing participants to lead the conversation and topics. Through the process, participants would begin to understand and feel empathy towards each other, supporting an enabling environment for peace negotiations.
Important context factors
Successful virtual exchange requires strong facilitation and a high quality platform to ensure success. The type of conflict and types of grievances among the population influences to which degree a meaningful online dialogue is possible. The proximity of the participants to the formal peace negotiations determines the impact of the virtual exchange on the overall mediation.
Risks and possible unintended consequences
- Spoilers may aim to sabotage the dialogue by leaking the content of the discussions or spreading misinformation about it
- High-profile participants may assert undue influence and monopolize the dialogue
- There may be limited progress or limited substantial outcomes of the dialogue activities
Strategic purpose of digital inclusion
Functions of digital Technology
Outputs of digital Technology
Technologies used
Video conferencing
Use Case 4
Countering misinformation about the negotiations
This reporting and analysis system tracks the spread of misinformation on social media and offline. The system would combine automatic monitoring of specific keywords and accounts on social media with reports from critical informants on rumors that they are picking up. Informants could be civil society actors trusted by the mediation team. Such rumors could include false information about security incidents, such as ceasefire violations, about the negotiation process, as well as any other information that mediators consider might derail peace talks. Once a rumour relevant to the negotiations is identified, the system would analyse its factual validity, source, spread and impact on public opinion. This analysis would be used by mediation support actors to counter the rumor with targeted messaging.
Important context factors
The availability of suitable informants is critical to the effectiveness of the system. The system requires a reliable and fast communication infrastructure that allows for swift analysis and response. The reach of the audience for counter messages depends on their digital literacy, language diversity, and connectedness to communication infrastructures.
Risks and possible unintended consequences
- By addressing a rumour in order to debunk it, more attention may be drawn to it than if it had gone unmentioned
- Counter messages may not work if not appropriately crafted based on the context and the information ecosystem environment.
Strategic purpose of digital inclusion
Functions of digital Technology
Outputs of digital Technology
Technologies used
Apps, online forms, SMS systems, social media analysis tools
Proceed to another phase
Phase 3
Main negotiations
Phase 4
Conclusion and implementation
Phase description
Following the negotiations, there may be a plenary vote on the agreed outcome document, and possibly a public referendum. Based on the outcome document, the government may agree on specific outcomes to be implemented, for instance through constitutional and legal reforms, efforts to deal with the past, and transitional justice. This may be facilitated by a proper infrastructure for implementation, including the necessary legal, constitutional or parliamentary entities, monitoring mechanisms, and follow-up dialogue forums through which unresolved questions can be addressed.
Explore the following 2 use case(s) of digital technology:
Use Case 1
Online collaboration in support of the peace process
This website enables collaboration on initiatives relating to the peace talks. Participants from different stakeholder groups can work together to identify common concerns, build coalitions around key issues, and plan joint actions that support the mediation. In addition, members of the public could use the site to identify activities happening in their locality and join them. Results of the collaboration could feed into the negotiation, for instance, by enabling a collaborative approach to agenda-setting. The tool could also help building pressure on the negotiation parties by demonstrating public support for peace and advocating for specific process outcomes. Once an agreement has been reached, the website could also be used to organize initiatives that are included in the formal provisions of the peace agreement. A password-protected version of the website could be available for a closed group of civil society actors for more direct coordination. This tool can be used accross all phases of the process.
Important context factors
This tool requires a relatively open environment and general support for peace from the population, as well as an active civil society and community leaders. The site will require a wide user base from the start to ensure it generates sufficient momentum through a critical mass of activities. This project will be constrained in the context of a divided society, with limited civil society groups and restricted freedom of expression. The use case requires access to the internet for large parts of the population and some culture of civic engagement.
Risks and possible unintended consequences
- There may be limited political momentum if the site is not populated with an initial set of engaging projects
- The site may be misused for initiatives that reinforce division and polarization, or promote partisan interests
Strategic purpose of digital inclusion
Functions of digital Technology
Outputs of digital Technology
Technologies used
Website
Use Case 2
Rapid polling: public opinion on an agreement
A polling system used to understand shifting public opinion after an agreement is signed. The results of this poll can help to know where obstacles may lie in the implementation process and to identify areas where continued mediation support may be needed. The polling exercise could be repeated regularly in the course of the implementation process. The polling could take place through dedicated polling apps, online forms, text messaging applications, or SMS systems. The information would be collected, classified, analyzed, and conclusions shared with mediators. The data could also be shared back to the polling participants and distributed among a broader set of organizations involved in the peace process.
Important context factors
There needs to be some pre-existing public acceptance of the process for people to agree to contribute to a poll, and political will from negotiators to incorporate this data into the selection of representatives. The credibility of the organisation conducting the polling will be critical to its success.
Risks and possible unintended consequences
- The polling system may be hacked to reveal how certain individuals or groups are voting
- People may become disillusioned with the process if they feel poll results are not transparently included in the choice of representatives
- The analysis may be biased, depending on the sampling methodology used
- High levels of reporting on certain indicators may distort representativeness
- The questions themselves may erode support for the agreement by sharing its content, if not carefully framed
Strategic purpose of digital inclusion
Functions of digital Technology
Outputs of digital Technology
Technologies used
Online forms, polling apps, messaging services, SMS systems
Proceed to another phase
Phase 4