Scenario 4/4
Negotiations to end a localized armed insurgency
This illustrative scenario describes options for digital inclusion to end a local insurgency. Following international condemnation of the government's attempt to suppress the armed uprising by military means, the government has agreed to enter negotiations under the auspices of a regional organization. The conflict was driven by grievances about political marginalization and economic exploitation. It took place in relative isolation from the country's urban center. The negotiations begin with secret meetings between representatives of the conflict parties, followed by a first round of informal talks. These lead to formal high-level negotiations, resulting in an agreement. Peacemaking efforts at lower tracks complement this effort. The negotiations are followed by an implementation process.
Phase 1
Shift towards negotiations
Following a prolonged period of armed violence, the purely military confrontation between the government and the insurgency group shifts towards efforts to find a negotiated solution to the conflict. There may be a first exchange of information between the conflict parties, indicating willingness to seek a negotiated settlement. A third party may facilitate such informal rapprochement. These developments remain mostly hidden from the public. There may have been earlier, failed attempts to resolve the conflict through a negotiated agreement.
Phase 2
Informal negotiations
Several rounds of informal negotiations between representatives of the conflict parties will take place. These are likely initiated or facilitated by a third party. They may take place through shuttle diplomacy without face-to-face meetings between the conflict parties, or informal meetings between representatives outside the country. There may also be technical workshops on the track-two level, involving experts that aim to find technical solutions to specific aspects of the conflict. This phase usually sees concessions from both sides, for instance, a withdrawal or repositioning of troops, the granting of amnesty, or joint security measures. There may be more substantial progress, such as the reaching of a ceasefire agreement or a unilateral cessation of hostilities. Such milestones may also result in the establishment of various follow-up mechanisms, such as ceasefire monitoring, which may, for instance, be set-up under the auspices of a regional organization with the support of national NGOs.
Phase 3
Formal negotiations
The negotiations will unfold over various rounds of high-level talks between the conflict parties. In addition, track-two workshops may continue to develop technical solutions to the conflict, which can inform the formal negotiation process. The talks may proceed slowly with little visible progress, for instance, through a few meetings between conflict party representatives, while the armed conflict on the ground continues. There may be heightened political mobilization, involving conflict parties, hardliners and peace-activists, engaging in conventional and online media as well as through public protests. The negotiations may evolve throughout several agreements. A framework agreement reached at the beginning of the negotiations may be followed by more detailed technical agreements on specific issues such as security, political, and economic arrangements. Each of these agreements may come with implementation mechanisms, which means that phases three and four can often overlap significantly. At the end of this phase, a comprehensive peace agreement is signed.
Phase 4
Agreement implementation
The peace agreement is signed and is ready for implementation. This often requires the creation of dedicated technical bodies, such as political reform commissions, or truth and reconciliation commissions. The implementation may involve wide-ranging political reform processes as well as the creation of new government entities and oversight bodies. Delays and setbacks in the implementation process are common, as parts of the agreement may be contested and require renegotiation. The process may also struggle due to defections or boycotts by hardliner groups. Signing the peace agreement may not in itself guarantee peace. Negotiations may lead to a bargaining deal that satisfies the leaders of the insurgent movement, but leaves the deeper causes of the conflict unresolved. Securing the buy-in of the majority population, building public support, and civil society oversight is critical to the success of this phase. Continued trust-building measures and, if necessary, the clarification or renegotiation of parts of the agreement may be required.
Phase 1
Shift towards negotiations
Phase description
Following a prolonged period of armed violence, the purely military confrontation between the government and the insurgency group shifts towards efforts to find a negotiated solution to the conflict. There may be a first exchange of information between the conflict parties, indicating willingness to seek a negotiated settlement. A third party may facilitate such informal rapprochement. These developments remain mostly hidden from the public. There may have been earlier, failed attempts to resolve the conflict through a negotiated agreement.
Explore the following 1 use case(s) of digital technology:
Use Case 1
Online collaboration in support of the peace process
This website enables the coordination of initiatives relating to the peace talks. Participants from different stakeholder groups can work together to identify common concerns, build coalitions around key issues, and plan joint actions that support the mediation. In addition, members of the public could use the site to identify activities happening in their locality and join them. Results of the collaboration could feed into the negotiation, for instance, by enabling a collaborative approach to agenda-setting. The tool could also help building pressure on the negotiation parties by demonstrating public support for peace and advocating for specific process outcomes. Once an agreement has been reached, the website could also be used to organize initiatives that are included in the formal provisions of the peace agreement. A password-protected version of the website could be available for a closed group of civil society actors for more direct coordination. This tool can be used accross all phases of the process.
Important context factors
This use case requires a relatively open environment and general support for peace from the population, as well as an active civil society and community leaders. The site requires a wide user base from the start to ensure it generates sufficient momentum through a critical mass of activities. This project will be constrained in the context of a divided society, with limited civil society groups and restricted freedom of expression. The use case requires access to the internet for large parts of the population and some culture of civic engagement.
Risks and possible unintended consequences
- There may be limited political momentum if the site is not populated with an initial set of engaging projects
- The site may be misused for initiatives that reinforce division and polarization, or promote partisan interests
Strategic purpose of digital inclusion
Functions of digital Technology
Outputs of digital Technology
Technologies used
Website
Proceed to another phase
Phase 1
Shift towards negotiations
Phase 2
Informal negotiations
Phase description
Several rounds of informal negotiations between representatives of the conflict parties will take place. These are likely initiated or facilitated by a third party. They may take place through shuttle diplomacy without face-to-face meetings between the conflict parties, or informal meetings between representatives outside the country. There may also be technical workshops on the track-two level, involving experts that aim to find technical solutions to specific aspects of the conflict. This phase usually sees concessions from both sides, for instance, a withdrawal or repositioning of troops, the granting of amnesty, or joint security measures. There may be more substantial progress, such as the reaching of a ceasefire agreement or a unilateral cessation of hostilities. Such milestones may also result in the establishment of various follow-up mechanisms, such as ceasefire monitoring, which may, for instance, be set-up under the auspices of a regional organization with the support of national NGOs.
Explore the following 4 use case(s) of digital technology:
Use Case 1
Online collaboration in support of the peace process
This website enables the coordination of initiatives relating to the peace talks. Participants from different stakeholder groups can work together to identify common concerns, build coalitions around key issues, and plan joint actions that support the mediation. In addition, members of the public could use the site to identify activities happening in their locality and join them. Results of the collaboration could feed into the negotiation, for instance, by enabling a collaborative approach to agenda-setting. The tool could also help building pressure on the negotiation parties by demonstrating public support for peace and advocating for specific process outcomes. Once an agreement has been reached, the website could also be used to organize initiatives that are included in the formal provisions of the peace agreement. A password-protected version of the website could be available for a closed group of civil society actors for more direct coordination. This tool can be used accross all phases of the process.
Important context factors
This use case requires a relatively open environment and general support for peace from the population, as well as an active civil society and community leaders. The site requires a wide user base from the start to ensure it generates sufficient momentum through a critical mass of activities. This project will be constrained in the context of a divided society, with limited civil society groups and restricted freedom of expression. The use case requires access to the internet for large parts of the population and some culture of civic engagement.
Risks and possible unintended consequences
- There may be limited political momentum if the site is not populated with an initial set of engaging projects
- The site may be misused for initiatives that reinforce division and polarization, or promote partisan interests
Strategic purpose of digital inclusion
Functions of digital Technology
Outputs of digital Technology
Technologies used
Website
Use Case 2
Participatory peace campaign
This online campaign demonstrates progress in the peace process and pressures the conflict parties to join the formal negotiation process. The campaign would operate on social media, where mediation support actors would share multi-media content (videos and photos) that document progress in the peace process. Each piece of media content would link to an online platform through which users could reach out to their political or community representative. Once a formal negotiation process is established, the campaign would demonstrate that there has been tangible progress. It would also invite the users to lobby their political representatives to commit to a peaceful settlement of the conflict. There could also be a “call for action” element, integrated at a later stage. For instance, people could register with the page to sign up for more confidence-building measures and then choose to film or otherwise disseminate that information.
Important context factors
Such a campaign will work best where the population (or at least parts) are in favor of a peaceful settlement. Some degree of freedom of expression is necessary so that people feel safe enough to share content. The campaign will be less effective in the context of a strongly divided population.
Risks and possible unintended consequences
- The campaign may lose momentum and the participants may become disengaged, particularly in the call to action
- A dominant group or party may use the campaign to promote hegemonic views/narratives
- The campaign may be seen as a PR-tool for the peace process if it does not have a broad-based buy-in
- The campaign may revive grievances, or the participants may be unable to agree on a shared political narrative.
Strategic purpose of digital inclusion
Functions of digital Technology
Outputs of digital Technology
Technologies used
Online platform, apps, social media
Use Case 3
Rapid polling: agenda setting
A polling system used to identify and understand core constituency issues in the run-up to negotiations, especially of marginalized and underrepresented groups. The results of this poll would be used for agenda setting and to inform the design of the negotiation process. The polling could take place through dedicated polling apps, online forms, text messaging applications, or SMS systems. The information would be collected, classified, analyzed, and conclusions shared with mediators. The data could also be shared back to the polling participants and distributed among a broader set of organizations involved in the peace process.
Important context factors
There will need to be some pre-existing public acceptance of the process for people to agree to contribute to a poll. Conflict parties and mediators must be willing to incorporate the polling data into the agenda-setting process. The credibility of the organization conducting polling would be critical to its success.
Risks and possible unintended consequences
- Groups associated with conflict parties may use the polls to unduly influence the agenda
- Participants may become disillusioned with the process if they feel poll results are not transparently included in the agenda-setting process
- The analysis may be biased, depending on the sampling methodology used
- Mediators may become overwhelmed with data and lack the capacity to analyze it
- Polls may lead to heightened expectations that cannot be met by the mediation
Strategic purpose of digital inclusion
Functions of digital Technology
Outputs of digital Technology
Technologies used
Online forms, polling apps, messaging services, SMS systems
Use Case 4
Dynamic mapping of power relations
An online tool that allows for the interactive visualization of key peace process actors, their attitudes and interests, how these actors are connected, and the power relations between them. The data for this online dashboard would be collected by focal points through offline focus group discussions or individual interviews with key stakeholders. The tool could be periodically updated by the focal points to measure changes in the network of peace process actors. The data could be used by negotiators to inform the design of their mediation strategy. The tool could help mediators understand how attitude and interest changes among stakeholders relate to the causes and dynamics of conflict. Mediators could also analyze who of the stakeholders can influence attitude change and identify shared values and possible connectors among them.
This tool can be applied in phases 2 and 3.
Important context factors
The tool requires commitment from a mediator or mediation support actor to collect data continually. Depending on the context, there will be sensitivities around what information is shared by whom. A strong network of local focal points (for instance local civil society organisations) that support the assessment will also be needed.
Risks and possible unintended consequences
- Stakeholders may misrepresent their interests or power for strategic reasons
- Access to the field may be limited due to insecurity
- Stakeholders may have limited political will to contribute to the assessment
- The participation rate in the asessment could decrease over time
Strategic purpose of digital inclusion
Functions of digital Technology
Outputs of digital Technology
Technologies used
Online visualisation tool
Proceed to another phase
Phase 2
Informal negotiations
Phase 3
Formal negotiations
Phase description
The negotiations will unfold over various rounds of high-level talks between the conflict parties. In addition, track-two workshops may continue to develop technical solutions to the conflict, which can inform the formal negotiation process. The talks may proceed slowly with little visible progress, for instance, through a few meetings between conflict party representatives, while the armed conflict on the ground continues. There may be heightened political mobilization, involving conflict parties, hardliners and peace-activists, engaging in conventional and online media as well as through public protests. The negotiations may evolve throughout several agreements. A framework agreement reached at the beginning of the negotiations may be followed by more detailed technical agreements on specific issues such as security, political, and economic arrangements. Each of these agreements may come with implementation mechanisms, which means that phases three and four can often overlap significantly. At the end of this phase, a comprehensive peace agreement is signed.
Explore the following 3 use case(s) of digital technology:
Use Case 1
Online collaboration in support of the peace process
This website enables the coordination of initiatives relating to the peace talks. Participants from different stakeholder groups can work together to identify common concerns, build coalitions around key issues, and plan joint actions that support the mediation. In addition, members of the public could use the site to identify activities happening in their locality and join them. Results of the collaboration could feed into the negotiation, for instance, by enabling a collaborative approach to agenda-setting. The tool could also help building pressure on the negotiation parties by demonstrating public support for peace and advocating for specific process outcomes. Once an agreement has been reached, the website could also be used to organize initiatives that are included in the formal provisions of the peace agreement. A password-protected version of the website could be available for a closed group of civil society actors for more direct coordination. This tool can be used accross all phases of the process.
Important context factors
This use case requires a relatively open environment and general support for peace from the population, as well as an active civil society and community leaders. The site requires a wide user base from the start to ensure it generates sufficient momentum through a critical mass of activities. This project will be constrained in the context of a divided society, with limited civil society groups and restricted freedom of expression. The use case requires access to the internet for large parts of the population and some culture of civic engagement.
Risks and possible unintended consequences
- There may be limited political momentum if the site is not populated with an initial set of engaging projects
- The site may be misused for initiatives that reinforce division and polarization, or promote partisan interests
Strategic purpose of digital inclusion
Functions of digital Technology
Outputs of digital Technology
Technologies used
Website
Use Case 2
Dynamic mapping of power relations
An online tool that allows for the interactive visualization of key peace process actors, their attitudes and interests, how these actors are connected, and the power relations between them. The data for this online dashboard would be collected by focal points through offline focus group discussions or individual interviews with key stakeholders. The tool could be periodically updated by the focal points to measure changes in the network of peace process actors. The data could be used by negotiators to inform the design of their mediation strategy. The tool could help mediators understand how attitude and interest changes among stakeholders relate to the causes and dynamics of conflict. Mediators could also analyze who of the stakeholders can influence attitude change and identify shared values and possible connectors among them.
This tool can be applied in phases 2 and 3.
Important context factors
The tool requires commitment from a mediator or mediation support actor to collect data continually. Depending on the context, there will be sensitivities around what information is shared by whom. A strong network of local focal points (for instance local civil society organisations) that support the assessment will also be needed.
Risks and possible unintended consequences
- Stakeholders may misrepresent their interests or power for strategic reasons
- Access to the field may be limited due to insecurity
- Stakeholders may have limited political will to contribute to the assessment
- The participation rate in the asessment could decrease over time
Strategic purpose of digital inclusion
Functions of digital Technology
Outputs of digital Technology
Technologies used
Online visualisation tool
Use Case 3
Public digital consultations
This online discussion forum enables consultative processes with a broad cross-section of the population. The website would allow back-and-forth, interactive communication between the mediator and the population during the ongoing negotiation process, focused on specific and tangible elements of the negotiations. Ideally, such digital consultations should be complemented by offline consultations. A social media campaign could be run to invite people to the online discussion forum. Qualitative data gathered through this process could be analyzed and synthesized through text analysis tools that leverage Artificial Intelligence.
Important context factors
Digital consultations can only work if there is a high level of political will among those at the negotiation table, as well as a capacity to integrate large amounts of feedback into negotiations. In addition, the public should feel comfortable enough to express themselves openly through digital means and have access to relevant technologies.
Risks and possible unintended consequences
- Information that goes into a digital consultation may not be processed in time to feed into the negotiations
- The digital consultation may raise false expectations among the population if there is insufficient commitment to integrate the results into the negotation process
- There may be increased fragmentation and polarization in the population as a result of consulting more people about what’s on the agenda of discussions
- Spoilers may use the digital consultation to unduly skew the agenda of discussions
Strategic purpose of digital inclusion
Functions of digital Technology
Outputs of digital Technology
Technologies used
Online discussion forum, social media, Natural language processing
Proceed to another phase
Phase 3
Formal negotiations
Phase 4
Agreement implementation
Phase description
The peace agreement is signed and is ready for implementation. This often requires the creation of dedicated technical bodies, such as political reform commissions, or truth and reconciliation commissions. The implementation may involve wide-ranging political reform processes as well as the creation of new government entities and oversight bodies. Delays and setbacks in the implementation process are common, as parts of the agreement may be contested and require renegotiation. The process may also struggle due to defections or boycotts by hardliner groups. Signing the peace agreement may not in itself guarantee peace. Negotiations may lead to a bargaining deal that satisfies the leaders of the insurgent movement, but leaves the deeper causes of the conflict unresolved. Securing the buy-in of the majority population, building public support, and civil society oversight is critical to the success of this phase. Continued trust-building measures and, if necessary, the clarification or renegotiation of parts of the agreement may be required.
Explore the following 1 use case(s) of digital technology:
Use Case 1
Rapid polling: public opinion on an agreement
A polling system used to understand shifting public opinion after an agreement is signed. The results of this poll can help to know where obstacles may lie in the implementation process and to identify areas where continued mediation support may be needed. The polling exercise could be repeated regularly in the course of the implementation process. The polling could take place through dedicated polling apps, online forms, text messaging applications, or SMS systems. The information would be collected, classified, analyzed, and conclusions shared with mediators. The data could also be shared back to the polling participants and distributed among a broader set of organizations involved in the peace process.
Important context factors
There needs to be some pre-existing public acceptance of the process for people to agree to contribute to a poll, and political will from negotiators to incorporate this data into the selection of representatives. The credibility of the organisation conducting the polling will be critical to its success.
Risks and possible unintended consequences
- The polling system may be hacked to reveal how certain individuals or groups are voting
- People may become disillusioned with the process if they feel poll results are not transparently included in the choice of representatives
- The analysis may be biased, depending on the sampling methodology used
- High levels of reporting on certain indicators may distort representativeness
- The questions themselves may erode support for the agreement by sharing its content, if not carefully framed
Strategic purpose of digital inclusion
Functions of digital Technology
Outputs of digital Technology
Technologies used
Online forms, polling apps, messaging services, SMS systems
Proceed to another phase
Phase 4